• Kelvin

Durian prices to fall substantially this season in May 2020.

Updated: Apr 22


Next Durian harvest in May 2020

For the past few weeks, we have been receiving many calls from customers enquiring about the next durian season.


The durian season is likely to begin in early to mid May 2020.


Now, here's the good news- prices of durians are expected to fall substantially. Based on our experience and analysis, there are 3 main markets that are directly influencing the price of Malaysian durians: Malaysia's domestic market, China and Singapore. Read on to understand more.



Expected drop in Malaysia's domestic demand.


The first durians will be harvested in Johor State. Pahang durians will only begin to ripen sometime in end May to early June.


Due to the Covid19 outbreak and the resulting MCO in Malaysia, demand for durians within Malaysia is expected to fall.


In KL, most people are used to visiting roadside and market durian stalls - many are still not familiar and comfortable with online delivery service. As such, it is predicted that overall sales volume is going to fall in Malaysia.


Closer to home, in Johor Bahru, durian stalls in the past, have experienced brisk business- thanks to Singaporeans frequent visits to JB for late night supper and petrol pumping.


However, once again, due to the Covid19 outbreak, the travel restrictions imposed on Singaporeans since early March, have resulted in zero visitor to JB in recent weeks. And these restrictions are likely to carry into the next one to two months. Retail businesses in JB have been hit hard by these restrictions.


Hence, we are forecasting an overall drop in durian demand in Malaysia by about 20%.




Singapore companies are likely to cancel their corporate durian parties.


A corporate durian party in a Jurong Company in 2019

Here at home, many private Singapore companies are affected by the damage caused by this outbreak. The most urgent need is to watch their expenses and to try their best to retain as many of their workforce as they can.


Non essential expenditure will likely to be cut off from the equation, and durian party will most certainly be one of them.


Moreover, with the current Work From Home (WFH) orders and social distancing policy, it is unlikely any large scale durian parties will happen.


So we are expecting overall durian demand in Singapore to fall this season as compared to the same time last year.



Durian Demand in China has recovered slightly.


Meanwhile in China, ever since the Wuhan lockdown was lifted, industries are reopening pretty quickly, and the Chinese people are gradually heading back to work.


The Chinese people are wasting no time- they are determined to get back to normal life as soon as possible.


We are starting to receive renewed interest in durian export to China and we have also heard news that some of our fellow tradesman have closed a couple of new contract deals.


So this will help to hold up the durian price a little.



Conclusion


In conclusion, with the global pandemic currently locking down almost one quarter of the world's population, durians, being part of the global commodity trade, will certainly be affected to some extend.


The overall demand is almost certainly going to fall - even if China's demand recover slightly, it is unlikely to make up for the fall in domestic demand in Malaysia as well as in Singapore.


We are predicting that prices will fall by about 25% - 40%, and not 60% as reported in some media. This is because the harvest throughout Malaysia is going to be spread out rather evenly this season (first Johor, then Pahang). So that will provide some price stability throughout this upcoming season.


We are expecting Grade A Mao Shan Wang to be priced at between $15 - $17 in the peak of the season. Prices will likely to creep back up to $19 - $24 during the early stages and ending of the season.


If you have any questions on the upcoming season, please feel free to email us or contact us via Whatsapp at 98222495.

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